Aintree 2.35 Sanctuaire 3rd 13/8 looks good from both perspectives with Drussell the danger based on the first perspective. Winner: Orsippus 40/1 was the leader on race experience and was race fit (22 days since last run) with decent but not leading 9PFF. So first perspective was heading in right direction. Race experience has to count more here, clearly.

Taunton 3.00 Bendant lead early, faded fits the bill not for the first time in my profiles. King's Legacy unseated rider at final fence whilst in lead is expected to place.

The keys to this race are:-
Race experience
9PFF
Race fit previous winners
Weight
OR
Dominator jockey/Dominator stable combo
I have two very different perspectives to offer today. The first is based on the record of Novices Hurdles in general at Aintree. The second is based on Class 1 Novices Hurdles specifically at courses like Aintree and meetings like this in general.

First: Aintree has proved to have a similar profile for Novices' Hurdles to Wetherby. Mutiple Novices Hurdles studied and profiled at Wetherby over the years have identified race experience (sometimes including flat) to be a key only really trump-able by race fit previous winning more superior 9PFF horses when present. Weight penalties cause as much an issue here as elsewhere in Novices Hurdles.

Second, taken from a pair of profiles of Class 1 Novices Hurdles: The general profile picked the 2nd and 3rd horses in perfect order. 2nd home was unpenalized 9PFF leader. Third home was penalized dual winner (last two). Win however went to only filly in race, poor form (5F) but usual 7lb concession and coming from top class Nicholls stable, distinguished by dominator jockey Ruby Walsh (who lost HH earlier today).[Kempton 2m Soft 4yos] In juvenile version of this race, such a candidate was beaten to 2nd by only LTO, joint 9PFF leader under weight penalty not carrying dominating jockey but carrying very strong 2nd and from dominator trainer - 2nd today for the combo.

Taunton 3:00 totequadpot Novices' Hurdle (Div I) Cl4 2m3f110y

The keys to this race are:-
JFC/sr
Not 9PFF (even unpenalized)
Not race experience
Not JFC/vol
The horse carrying top jockey for course on strike rate (JFC/sr) with only a single run placed 5th behind him trumped the two LTOs (last time out winners), one with best race experience (although that one was weight penalized) and one with a single win from a single previous run. Best jockey on volume was a no-show also. Worth noting that the (penalized) 9PFF leader with best race experience in field DID make the frame (3rd).

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