Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Wednesday in April 2010

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Perth 2.45 Possol 2nd Evens is the selection and not just because I follow him (@Possol_10) on twitter!! He is from the leading stable on TFC/sr in this very competitive all-penalized field. Therefore the profile favours both him and Meath All Star. WON 11/1

Southwell 7.00 Arctic Ben 4th (by neck) 9/4 best fits the general profile. You might think Battlefield Bob did but his second place being on the all-weather course usually would not count towards his 9PFF credentials so he is discounted. It could be argued that My Shamwari has the spoiler credentials here but his run in a much better class event was a hardly creditable 12th place last time. It's really a toss up for the danger horse as it's possible to argue a case for all the other three top-weights but last time out winner with JFN/sr leader Paul Moloney on board, William's Wishes WON 5/2 may be just about the strongest candidate.

Novices' Hurdles General Profile
The keys to this race-type are:-
Unpenalized 9PFF
Jockeyship
Continuing our focus on Novices' Hurdles today and as a reminder, there is a general winner profile which applies with great frequency in Novices' Hurdles. It does not always correctly identify the winner but amongst profiles for Novices Hurdles it has the greatest overall success. To give an idea of its success rate, in 19 such races studied in March 2010, 8 winners fit this general profile. Thus it has a recent strike rate of 42%.

In the past two days it has successfully selected one winner out of four Novices' Hurdles yielding a 25% strike rate but notably good odds in the victor which was Clerk's Choice at 9/1 at Kempton.

This general profile fares better at some courses than at others. At today's National Hunt venue of Southwell there have been winners bearing the hallmarks of this profile and so we shall apply it again. However, Novices Hurdles at Perth have in the past tended to follow their own profile which we will also consider for the Perth race.

The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader preferably carrying a strong JFN/sr jockey.

A special post-script applies to Southwell where conditional jockeys have a particularly good record and also the general profile has sometimes been spoiled by horses having recently run in better class races.

At Perth, as elsewhere, it is possible for a top weight allocation, when as much as 6lbs higher than the bulk of the field, to stop even a dual winner if the market and press ratings don't back his chances and if there is reasonable 9PFF opposition and, in the case of this venue certainly, a dominating trainer for the course can overcome a dominating jockey in support of unpenalized 9PFF credentials. Race experience can count for something but as shown here, usually only a place.