Racing
Profiler
Racing
Profiler
Perth 2.10 Ciceron WON 8/11 is getting market support and comes from a strong course stable so his weight may not negate his near dominant 9PFF form on this occasion where the 9PFF competition is not that great. The general profile, which picked the winner here yesterday, prefers Ten Pole Tudor whereas Solis looks best fit for the Perth-specific profile with his place last time out and a trainer in the top three for the course. Nevertheless, I'll stick with Ciceron as the primary selection.
Fontwell 2.20 Shoegazer 2nd 5/2 is not only the selection of Profile 2 (see below) but also favoured by the Fontwell-specific profile quirks whereas the general profile clearly favours Latin America. 3rd 2/1
Uttoxeter no Novices' Hurdles today
In the past three days it has successfully selected two winners out of six Novices' Hurdles yielding a 33% strike rate but notably good odds in the victors which were Clerk's Choice at 9/1 at Kempton and Meath All Star at 11/1 at Perth.
This general profile fares better at some courses than at others. At today's National Hunt venues of Fontwell and Uttoxeter there have been winners bearing the hallmarks of this profile and so we shall apply it again. However, Novices Hurdles at Perth have in the past tended to follow their own profile which we will also consider for the Perth race.
The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader preferably carrying a strong JFN/sr jockey.
Interestingly, there is an alternative variation on the profile (which I refer to as Profile 2) which first focuses on the leading in-form jockeys and then considers 9PFF form and in the past three days this particular profile has picked four of the six Novices Hurdle winners thus yielding a 66% strike rate. With such a strike rate, we have to take note of this profile too.
A special post-script applies to Fontwell where leading course jockeys have a particularly good record especially if supported by dominator trainers. Whilst at Uttoxeter we note that when 9PFF is scarce, minor placings (4th, 5th and 6th) should be considered when evaluating form.
At Perth, as elsewhere, it is possible for a top weight allocation, when as much as 6lbs higher than the bulk of the field, to stop even a dual winner if the market and press ratings don't back his chances and if there is reasonable 9PFF opposition and, in the case of this venue certainly, a dominating trainer for the course can overcome a dominating jockey in support of unpenalized 9PFF credentials. Race experience can count for something but as shown here, usually only a place.
1. Home - www.HorseRa [60]
2. SoCheltenham [34]
3. Chris Bealbys Blo [20]
4. The Vic Page [19]
5. S J Tommo's Tippin [18]
6. The £500 Betfair C [11]
7. Cheltenham Festiva [11]
8. Online Horse Race [10]
9. Horse racing forum [9]
10. Horse Racing : Se [9]
[More]
|
Join the FaceBook community of |