Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Wednesday in April 2010

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Kelso 7.55 Seize 2nd 12/1 is the Papillon selection after hours of study documented below. The profile for Handicap Chases generally supports Papillon selections although at times favours TF/Course candidates if supported by TF/Now and JF/Course and of course Seize also fits these criteria consolidating the selection. Meanwhile, the Papillon ratings suggest Nile Moon 3rd 8/1 and Harry Flashman 5th 4/1 should be in the battle for placings.

Southwell No coverage in today's Papillon special.

Handicap Chase Winner Profiles
Featuring Papillon

The keys to this race-type are:-
9PFF
TrainerForm(TF)
JockeyForm(JF)
Course and Distance preference
Going
Weight
Age
Speed

No Novices Hurdles today so we have something special to fill in for our current series: Papillon, soon to launch his own web site based on this successful method for picking Handicap Chase winners, will today help us analyze a Handicap Chase at Kelso.

For a brief history on the Papillon method check here. I will assume a basic understanding of the method as I proceed. So let's get straight to the race: In the 7.55 at Kelso let's first take a look at the form of the 13 runners using a method of analysis talked about often here by the Racing Profiler: 9PFF. This rates the last three positions of each horse's career. Here's how the runners shape up in this race according to 9PFF:

Something Silver 6
Oscar Honey 3
Seize 3
Eyre Square 3
Top Dressing 2
Ocarina 2
Minouchka 1
Harry Flashman 1

For the purposes of Papillon we need to now go one stage further and condense these ratings. This is in order to level the ratings with the other seven factors to consider. After this process, all the above horses are rated 1 point except Something Silver who is rated 2 for 9PFF.

Next up we look at TrainerForm (TF). We have to consider three different perspectives when doing this: TF/Course, TF/Now and TF/Racetype. The horse gets a point each time his trainer features in the top ranks in each of these areas. There are different definistions for the top ranks so today we are going to adopt a definition that has been used to great effect in the studies of Novices Hurdles recently. This rates the top three candidates on strike rate in each area except if their strike rate is less than 10%. Also, single victories are excluded. To qualify, the trainer must have a winning volume of at least two wins. Here's how they shape up today:

TF/Course:
Ring Street Roller
Nile Moon
Seize
TF/Now:
Something Silver
Oscar Honey (1 win only)
Top Dressing
Seize
TF/Racetype:
Minouchka (1 win only)
Nile Moon
Ocarina
Seize

So the adjusted scores so far are as follows: Seize 4
Something Silver 3
Top Dressing 2
Ocarina 2
Nile Moon 2
Oscar Honey 1
Eyre Square 1
Minouchka 1
Ring Street Roller 1
Harry Flashman 1

Next up we look at JockeyForm (JF). This works exactly the same way as TF. Here are the ratings:

JF/Course:
Oscar Honey
Not Left Yet
Seize
JF/Now:
Oscar Honey
Not Left Yet
Ring Street Roller
JF/Racetype:
Not Left Yet
Oscar Honey
Ring Street Roller

After that, the leaders now look like this:

Seize 5
Oscar Honey 4
Something Silver 3
Ring Street Roller 3
Not Left Yet 3
Top Dressing 2
Ocarina 2
Nile Moon 2
Eyre Square 1
Minouchka 1
Harry Flashman 1

NOw we consider course and distance preference rating 1 point for course winners, 1 point for distance winners and 1 bonus point for CDs. This favours:

Minouchka 3
Bill's Echo 1
Not Left Yet 1
Seize 1
Harry Flashman 1
Nile Moon 2
Snowy

This takes us to the halfway point of our study at which point the field is shaping up like this:

Seize 6
Oscar Honey 4
Minouchka 4
Not Left Yet 4
Something Silver 3
Ring Street Roller 3
Nile Moon 3
Top Dressing 2
Ocarina 2
Harry Flashman 2
Eyre Square 1
Bill's Echo 1
Snowy 1

Time now to look at going and this rates any horse who has won on the same going as today with 3 points. Horses that have won at one grade away from the going are rated 2 points and two grades away are rated 1 point. For example as the going today is Good, a win on good going is worth 3, a win on good-to-soft or good-to-firm is worth 2, a win on soft or firm is worth 1. Wins on any other going are not worth any points. Each horse can only score once for going and we take their best going score. Here's how they make out:

Oscar Honey 3
Bill's Echo 3
Seize 3
Not Left Yet 3
Ring Street Roller 3
Top Dressing 3
Minouchka 3
Eyre Square 1
Harry Flashman 3
Nile Moon 3
Ocarina 3
Snowy 3
Something Silver 2

Given that all except two horse have won on good ground and even those two get some points, it is actually easier at this point to just subtract points from those two rather than adding 3 to the whole field. This would leave Something Silver with 2 and Eyre Square with -1 point. Otherwise the field ratings and positions are not changed.

Now to the impact of weight and age. For this we need to consider the age and weight of last year's winner. That horse was a 7yo carrying 10-10. For age we now award all 7yos 3 points. Any horse one year older or younger gets 2 points. Two years older or younger earns 1 point. Here are the results:

Oscar Honey 1
Bill's Echo 0
Not Left Yet 1
Ring Street Roller 0
Top Dressing 1
Minouchka 0
Seize 2
Eyre Square 3
Harry Flashman 1
Nile Moon 1
Ocarina 2
Snowy 0
Something Silver 1

Apply those to the overall scores and the rankings after Age considered look like this:

Seize 8
Oscar Honey 5
Not Left Yet 5
Minouchka 4
Nile Moon 4
Ocarina 4
Ring Street Roller 3
Top Dressing 3
Harry Flashman 3
Something Silver 3
Eyre Square 2
Bill's Echo 1
Snowy 1

With two categories remaining, Seize is looking very hard to beat at this stage. But let's see anyway. To rate for weight, the general weight range for racing has to be broken into a series of weight groups as follows: [9-7 to 9-13][10-0 to 10-6][10-7 to 10-13][11-0 to 11-6][11-7 to 11-13]. Like the age rating, the weight rating is based on the proximity of the horse's group to the group of last year's winner (group 3). Here's how they score:

Oscar Honey 1
Bill's Echo 1
Not Left Yet 2
Ring Street Roller 2
Top Dressing 2
Minouchka 2
Seize 3
Eyre Square 3
Harry Flashman 3
Nile Moon 2
Ocarina 2
Snowy 2
Something Silver 1

Let us now apply these scores to the overall table:

Seize 11
Not Left Yet 7
Oscar Honey 6
Minouchka 6
Nile Moon 6
Ocarina 6
Harry Flashman 6
Ring Street Roller 5
Top Dressing 5
Eyre Square 5
Something Silver 4
Snowy 3
Bill's Echo 2

At this point with one category still to study we already have identified our winner in Seize on the grounds that his lead is so great that even if he gets zero points in the last category, he cannot be caught. Nevertheless we will look at the final category for reference purposes. That category is speed. Horse are rated based on their speed figures as follows: 110-130 = 3; 90-110 = 2; 70-90 = 1. Here's how they play out:

Harry Flashman 3
Nile Moon 3
Snowy 3
Top Dressing 2
Minouchka 2
Seize 2
Eyre Square 2
Ocarina 2
Something Silver 1

Now one last look at the final ratings after the speed factor has been considered:

Seize 13 2nd 12/1
Nile Moon 9 3rd 8/1
Harry Flashman 9 5th 4/1
Minouchka 8 4th 10/1
Ocarina 8 6th 4/1
Not Left Yet 7
Top Dressing 7 WON 18/1
Eyre Square 7
Oscar Honey 6
Snowy 6
Ring Street Roller 5
Something Silver 5
Bill's Echo 2

All in all this looks like a great race for Seize.