Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Thursday in April 2010

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Huntingdon 6.10 Keep Talking 5th/6 33/1 is the general profile and therefore the local profile selection too. But both profiles 2 and 4 would favour American Cricket 2nd (pipped at post) 4/7 not only the leader on race experience but also the most race fit 9PFF leader amongst previous winners here. Alexander Beetle 3rd/6 16/1 would be the choice of the Huntingdon profile spoiler.

Hereford No Novices' Hurdles today.

Novices' Hurdles Winner Profiles

The keys to this race-type are:-
9PFF
Weight (avoid penalized horses unless carrying claimers)
JockeyForm/Now/strike rate (also known as JFN/sr)

Well, wasn't that a ride? I refer of course to the visit yesterday from our Handicap Chase specialist, Papillon and the tremendous race put up by the selection, the 12/1 shot Seize, who mounted a late challenge only to be thwarted in the dying moments by 18/1 shot, Top Dressing, cementing a double for jockey Brian Hughes. Even though Papillon's lengthy study yesterday did not yield the winner, close scrutiny of the race result will show that, with the exception of Top Dressing, every horse in the top six horses to finish was in the top five Papillon ratings. Had you fancied Top Dressing and decided to mix him with the top three Papillon rated horses for a Tricast perm, that bet would have yielded in excess of 1800 pounds for a single pound stake. Bottom line: Papillon, though a very complicated and laborious method of study continues to be very accurate at predicting outcomes in Handicap Chases. There is no doubt that we will have Papillon back here before the month of May is out.

Meanwhile on this fifth day of the new season, it's time to resume our focus on Novices' Hurdles. As you know, there is a general winner profile which applies with great frequency in Novices' Hurdles. It does not always correctly identify the winner but amongst profiles for Novices Hurdles it has the greatest overall success. To give an idea of its success rate: In 19 such races studied in March 2010, 8 winners fit this general profile. Thus it recorded a strike rate last month of 42%.

In the past ten days it has successfully selected seven winners out of sixteen Novices' Hurdles yielding a 44% strike rate so is very much on track to repeat the March performance. Notably it has yielded good odds in some of the victors which include Clerk's Choice, 9/1 at Kempton and Meath All Star, 11/1 at Perth last week.

The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader preferably but not neccessarily carrying a strong JFN/sr jockey.

This general profile fares better at some courses than at others. At today's National Hunt venue of Huntingdon the general profile has a good record with the caveat that TrainerForm/Course has a greater emphasis than normal as does JockeyForm including JF/Racetype chase specialists. In November 2009 I conducted an extremely detailed analysis of a Novices Hurdle outcome at Huntingdon to try to establish a clear mathematical approach to Novices Hurdles in general. If such an approach is of interest to you, you can see for yourself if I succeeded here.

An alternative to the general profile, which I refer to as Profile 1 directs us to look for any last time out winners (LTOs) and if there are more than one, choose the one with the best jockey on JFN/sr. That profile has picked five out of twelve winners of Novices' Hurdles this past week (it does not have selections in all races as there are not always LTO winners in the field) so most recently has a 42% general success rate. We'll keep an eye on it.

Another alternative variation on the general profile which I refer to as Profile 2, first focuses on the top three leading in-form jockeys (JFN/sr) and then considers 9PFF form. In the past eight days, this profile has proved to be the rock star among the profiles having picked nine out of sixteen Novices' Hurdle winners thus yielding a 56% strike rate. Earlier this week at Towcester, although failing to pick the winner, it was tied between two horses, one of which was coming with a storming finish almost catching the leader when falling at the second last. The other selection ran third at an impressive 28/1. So we will continue to monitor the P2 selections.

Finally a fourth profile will also be added to our consideration: Called Profile 4, it has identified race experience (sometimes including flat and even less often, including Irish PtP) to be a key in some Novices' Hurdles only really trump-able by race fit previous winning more superior 9PFF horses when present. Weight penalties cause as much of an issue here as elsewhere in Novices' Hurdles. Though generally a strong profile, Profile 4 does not have a very good strike rate over the past month although in the last few days it has enjoyed a lot of success predicting 2/2 winners at decent odds on Tuesday. We will certainly take note of it.