I'm going to give it to you straight. Start with the top four jockeys on winning percentage in recent races. Now look for the leader (in number of wins) for this course among those jockeys.

Now look for the leading trainer (in number of wins) here at the course. If all of these factors combine to point to the same horse then you're looking at the race winner. If not, which of the horse on your list has the best and/or most recent winning form? That now becomes the selection.

An in-form trainer is key, preferably one who leads on number of wins in recent races.