Handicap Hurdles here tend to buck the general trend. Past winners have been lightly handicapped types carrying a low weight and a top course jockey. Six-year-olds also have a good record. But the low weight and the light handicapping experience seem to count most.

Though she's not the lowest weight-bearing of the lightly handicapped horses (that honour belongs to Sylroy at 10-2), Epee Celeste is second lowest weighted with 10-8 and with only a couple of handicaps behind her and she carries top course jockey and a bit of a dominator jockey here in Tom Scudamore. She also has a win in her last three races which bodes well here too. At 4 years old she's a little young but I still think she has enough going for her here.

Of the rest, it depends which factors count most. If a lightly handicapped horse isn't critical then Pearl has the #2 course jockey, a light weight at 10-4, some good recent form with a second last time and is a 6-y-o. However if a light weight is less important than a light handicap record, Raise You Five looks a decent 6-y-o with great recent form and very light handicap experience but a jockey with no special course credentials. Miss Overdrive meanwhile has a jockey with at least a win at the course, is 6-y-o, lightly handicapped with decent form but both these last two are very high in the weights which leads me to stick with Pearl or Sylroy as the back-up.

Hard to know what distinguished winner Tara Taylor from field. Was lightweight (10-4) and notably top-weight came 2nd and jockey was 1/5 with a win at course at least (lowest ranked) as well as in group that won more than 1 race in last 14 days (1/5 but again low ranked).Trainer Longsdon was #2 at course on % but from only a single win. Speed was high but only equal to Pearl. Age 7. Raced in 5 handicaps so not exactly lightly handicapped. No CD credentials. Racing Post ratings (RPR) alone singled the horse out as best in field. Other than that, hard to tell. Mares race.