We've enjoyed some success at Doncaster not least of which was the similar race a couple of weeks ago in which Dan Breen proved a successful selection. So we've reason to feel confident about the profile for this race today.
As the profile told last time, this is a race about form first and foremost. Horses with the best performances, preferably winning performances in their most recent outings will do best here. Wherein usually a weight penalty can upset the chances of a previous winner, it has been shown here that if that penalty is offset by a claiming jockey, the horse can then still win.
As shown in Dan Breen's race, if there is no offset to the weight penalty and there are other previous winners in the field, the advantage will usually go to them. Again as shown in the same race, if there are multiple unpenalized previous winners, the horse that is most race fit from hurdling (in other words who has most recently run in a hurdle race) should have the edge.
There are three unpenalized previous winners here, at least one of which should knock the penalized horses into a place. But which one? Notably all three haven't won in their last two runs which may dampen their chances. Of the three, one is very race fit which is important here. Aberdale, who last raced a fortnight ago, is one of two entrants from Jonjo O'Neill but equally interesting is that the trainer has selected his other entrant, Four Strong Winds, to carry the leading in-form jockey, Tony McCoy. That horse's form is definitely worthy of note too albeit winless. A second last time out though is the best performance of the unpenalized field.
Despite all this, I am going to stick with the horse that clearly the stable give less of a chance to in a race which should prove a good one for this stable one way or another.
I did a very thorough post-race analysis for this race but within 24 hours wiped it out in a mistake in
my editorial process and am VERY frustrated about it. From memory I will try to recap as best I can. I believe what it said was
that the profile was NOT WRONG here but merely my application of it. The winning horse at 22/1 Cool Mission could very well
have been a profile fit but I allowed myself to be distracted by a few things as follows:
The last time out form compared to the overall form. Cool Mission had a better 9PFF score and indeed the best 9PFF score
of the unpenalized horses (I went on here to explain 9PFF which is simply my method of rating form figures by giving
3 points to a win, 2 points to a second, 1 point to a third and only rating the last three outings). 9PFF is the way I
usually rate form in Novices Hurdles. Sometimes however, form last time out can trump a higher 9PFF score and that's what
I was thinking for this race as Four Strong Winds came second last time out. But the conclusion I drew was that this is
only relevant when the last time out form is a win. The significance is strongest when we are talking about winnig form.
Since though I have adjusted my thinking (even in the last 24 hours) to suggest that last time out form can still trump 9PFF
even when it is not winning form. This proved possible at Huntingdon the day after this race
(see Huntingdon on Thursday). But the conditions are a sheer lack of previous winners, and 9PFF so poor
in the focus group/short-list that the best overall score is 2 points and the average overall score is 1 point and most of this form
achieved in races up to two outings ago.
Back to this race though. The general standard of the form was better and the edge Four Strong Winds had in his last performance was not
so significant. I should not have dismissed the unpenalized 9PFF leader, Cool Mission. Another reason that distracted me and caused me to do so
was the fact that two horses were being run by the same top stable of Jonjo O'Neill. Both had decent form and one was a previous winner
(but only one of three unpenalized recent winners).
The final distracting reason was the fact that the strongest in-form jockey in Tony McCoy was riding one of these two horses.
In the end this all compounded to sway me emotionally and psychologically and be drawn to the choice I made instead of staying with
a cold logical form leader in Cool Mission. The only thing I did get right was noting that the weight penalized 9PFF leading horses
would not win but would be knocked into a place as both were and in the process demonstrated mmy theory by each putting up
a strong battle at the end to win but failing due, in my opinion, to the handicap of the weight.