Wednesday in January
Musselburgh: My interpretation of the profile points to leading in-form jockey Reveley on a horse that came third last time out, Pokfulham over unpenalized previous winners Bale O'Shea and Play the Rock whose jockeys have far less attractive recent form. Pokfulham 3rd 11/2
1.20 Huntingdon: Osric with a joint-lead in performance last time out (3rd), most in-form jockey by far and press recognized potential is my pick but will be close with unpenalized form horse, Paint the Clouds. Both horses unplaced
Updated 1/27/10
Musselburgh
Huntingdon
totequadpot Novices Hurdle (Div I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner 2,927 Good To Soft 2m

It may be starting to sound like an old record but the plain truth is in Novice Hurdles like this one, the horse to watch are those with a win last time out especially if they don't have a weight penalty and/or if they are carrying the most in-form jockey in the field.

If, as here, none won last time out, look at wins in the previous two races. Again, only consider these if there is no weight penalty present. Look also at horses with a second or third last time out. In either of these two cases, if the horse is supported by an in-form jockey, that horse most probably is the winner.

Huntingdon Racecourse For Outdoor Events Novices Hurdle (Div I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner 2,740 Soft 2m110y

I have conducted the deepest and most analytical study possible for just this very race-type namely a 2 mile Novices Hurdle at Huntingdon. So deep was the study that I could write pages here to profile this very race. But I won't. I'll spare you that in favour of the briefest possible summary.

The trick here is to identify the best looking horse(s) on recent (preferably winning) form. Then identify the best looking horse(s) based on in-form jockeys. The winner is on that list. Chances are the form horse will be carrying a weight penalty. If he is and if he is not blessed with an in-form jockey then you would have to eliminate him. If he doesn't have a weight penalty, you're probably looking at the winner especially if he's further blessed with an in-form jockey.

There is however one last consideration and that is past performance on the flat and general class and promise as identified by the press in horses whose form is either not present, not visible or not very clear. Such a horse exists in this field today and carries the stand-out jockey on recent winning percentage (and number of wins: 39%, 9). That horse is called Osric and for my money his only real challenge comes from the unpenalized two-times previous winner, Paint the Clouds.