Thursday in January
1.25 Ffos Las: My take on the profile has me leaning toward Megabill and Definite All Star for a place. Definite All Star 4th, Megabill unplaced
1.15 Warwick: Riskareas is fielded by what I call a dominator trainer in A King whose record at this track and also in general in recent weeks way out-strips his competition here. Mallorey has the only other notably strong in-form trainer whilst enjoying a placing in the top three on speed and should be good for a place. Riskareas 2nd 15/8
Updated 1/28/10
Ffos Las
Warwick
Lindley Weddings At Ffos Las Maiden Hurdle (Div I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner 2,927 Good To Soft 2m

I have yet to produce a profile for a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las. This event may provide the source. Meanwhile I have profiled maiden hurdles on good to soft ground at other large, galloping courses and here are my observations from them:

The priority is some winning experience in the horse's past. Ideally the horse should be race fit too but that is not as important as also having a trainer with a winning record.

Here Definite All Star, Megabill and Secret Stash are the only horses with a win behind them. Their trainers Gordon Elliot, Evan Milliams and Mrs. AM Thorpe all have a single win during the past two weeks and these all represent winning percentages below 10%. However at this track, Evan Williams has 5 wins over the past 5 years whilst Elliot has 2 and Thorpe has 1 and though Elliot's record represents by far the strongest winning percentage at 33%, I tend to go more with winning volume than percentage in maiden hurdles generally.

Race fit horses with some form though have a habit of making the frame in these types of

In the actual result, the only CD in the field won the race and the only two other distance winners came close second and fourth. No that's not right...he was NOT a CD prior to this race. Neither his jockey nor trainer had any notable record and though he was relatively race fit, he had not run better than 5th in his only 4 jumps over hurdles.

I have yet to produce a profile for a maiden hurdle at Warwick also. This event may provide the source. Meanwhile I have profiled 2 mile maiden hurdles on good to soft ground at other small, sharp courses and here are my observations from them:

The priority here is the trainer. You're looking for a trainer with the highest number of wins primarily and winning percentage is important but not as important as volume of wins. Ideally the horse will be race fit and have decent placings in recent runs although this is not critical at all. Likewise, horses in the top third on speed ratings tend to fare well and usually horses in the frame fall into that category. First and foremost though is trainer.