Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Wednesday in June 2010

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Cartmel 5.05 Puy d'Arnac is the only qualifier for the regular general profile. However, apply the weight shift rule and it now becomes a battle between Puy d'Arnac and Spare Me which Spare Me wins due to the slightly better 9PFF. Meanwhile the local profile seems to point to Broadway Star .

Handicap Hurdles

Now that we have finished our successful month-long May study of Novices' Hurdles, it's time to cast a glance at some other race-types in June. Later this month we'll release a Special E-Book Guide to all Novices' Hurdles just for our followers.

Like with the Novices' Hurdles, there is a general profile for Handicap Hurdles. Here is what it says: Short list horses in the weight brackets of top-weight and middle-weight (defined as 10-10 to 11-3 with exceptions if lowest weight much above 10-0). In the list seek lightly handicapped horses (no more than 3 handicaps raced) and/or distance winners. Look next at the best previous form among those selected. Look next among those left for trainer with the best record (in-form or course or winner of this race last year).

Sometimes the weight classes have to be adjusted in the general profile if the bottom-weight is higher than 10-0 as is the case today. Unfortunately this adjustment is not consistent. Sometimes it's a straight shift upwards by the number of pounds higher than 10-0 the bottom weight is carrying. Logic tells us this would not make sense here because it would push middle weights up to 11-7 to 12-0. Other times we have to take the full range of weights from bottom to top-weight, establish a mid-point and then include all horses carrying +- 3lbs from that midweight as being "middle-weight". That's more practical here.

Again, like with the Novices' Hurdles, the general profile sometimes points to winners and sometimes does not and so we have local profiles for each different course to offer an alternative view. Here is the local profile for Cartmel:

This post-race profile was recorded in a CLASS 5 4yo+, 0-95 HH over 2m6f Good May.
TFC and JFC hardly figured here but the profile from another middle distance HH on a similar ground (Fakenham) pointed to middle weights (usually means 10-11 and down) with consistent form. That would have described the winner here which carried the closest weight below 10-11 (10-8) and ran 55P-45 in his last 5 runs. He was also third on speed figures. So keys seem to be midweight, consistent form, top 3 speed.