Horse Racing Fixture Profiler
Updated 3/4/10
Thursday in March
3.00 Ludlow: Polyfast is from the top course stable in a race filled with course leading stables. His previous win at the distance ought to seal it though. Quartz de Thaix should go close. Polyfast unplaced after chasing keader till 3 out (see below)
Taunton:
Ludlow
Taunton
New Astra At Ludlow Motors Novices Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-125) Winner 5,636 Good 2m4f

Keys: Course trainers, going, distance
Horses from leading stables for the course with going and distance suitability. What if none have won at the distance? Look for a course leading trainer contender whose best recent performance was at or near the distance.
I'm very disappointed in placing too much emphasis on the one horse in this race. The profile above is sufficiently vague for inclusion of additional selections. I simply did not know where to place the emphasis: Trainer, distance or going? Well, the result is clear in that information: Emphasis should be on trainer and distance.

This field had so many trainers with a solid record at the course. Five out of seven trainers had eight or more wins here over the past five years. That is partly why I homed in on the trainer with by far the best record (32 wins, 36%) but that was a mistake. In retrospect, if I had started by focusing on the four distance winners in the race, only two out of the four trainers were in this top bracket. That would immediately have given me a shortlist of two which included my selection and the winner (whose trainer HD Daly was 17, 14%).

Other than that though, all I can point to is the fact that the winning trainer alone had two horses entered (his other was a winner on the going but came nowhere). Notably neither of the two horse in the shortlist were course winners and there were plenty here. This is a strike against normal NC profile.