Half the field can immediately be trimmed on the grounds that only a couple of horses have won this race at odds greater than 9/1 in the past 30 years. This is one for the market leaders and first and second favourites in particular do well.
This is also a race for well-rated horses, high in the handicap. On those grounds, we have to eliminate Forpadydeplasterer. Though he is high in the handicap, he's not quite up to the standard of the other leading contenders.
Finally 80% of winners over the last ten years not only won their previous outing but won a graded race in their previous outing. This expels an otherwise good-looking candidate in Kalahari King.
Of the horses that remain, all three have the credentials allowing them into the very exclusive club profiled by the majority or previous winners. One stands out in having won a Festival race in the past which is key. Namely the favourite, Master-Minded who is shooting for the treble today.
However his own stable-mate, Twist Magic, stands out in having won a key pointer race in the Tingle Creek. Ultimately this looks like a battle not only between two horses from the same stable but also between the two jockeys who between them have dominated the race over the past three years.
But on this St.Paddy's Day we must not write off the Irish especially after they claimed half of the prizes here yesterday and have an extremely strong record overall at the Festival. Big Zeb is their remaining qualifier. I frankly find it hard, nay impossible to choose between the three horses shortlisted.
Key: Top-weights from (top 3 sr) course leading stables, lightly handicapped horses
The general profile for Handicap Hurdles is probably worth a look considering the propensity for top-weights winning here
and lightly-handicapped types but clearly those two characteristics have greater emphasis here than elsewhere.
Just as a reminder on the general profile: Short-list horses in weight categories 10-10 to 11-3 and top-weight. Look among them for distance winners and lightly-handicapped horses. From that short-list, favour the horses with best recent form and if none stand out, look for those with the leading trainers.