Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Wednesday in March 2010

Warwick 5:40 Air Wedding Hunters' Chase Cl6 3m2f

The keys to this race are:-
Trainer
Course and distance wins
Beaten Favourites
Handicap rating dominance
Possibly LTO form
Possibly speed
Go with the best trainers (especially but not exclusively for course), (C)s, (D)s and (CD)s and also favour (BF)s. Speed domination (margin of 30 or more) has been present in a winner here too, not sure if it was a winning factor but could be. LTO form leadership also present in both first and second (jointly) in the past. May or may not have significance. Handicap rating dominance (>30) is a significant factor.

Haydock 5:00 Business Club Raceday "Fixed Brush" Novices' Hurdle Cl4 2m4f110y

Keys:
Unpenalized 9PFF
Jockeyship
The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader pref. strong JFN/sr jockey.
Dual winners LTO carrying strong JFC/sr leading jockeys (33% in this case) have overcome weight here.

Hereford 4:15 Lindley Catering Novices' Hurdle Cl4 2m4f

The keys to this race are:-
Weight penalties disqualify candidates
9PFF if present and TFC/sr
If no 9PFF: Lower the 9PFF standard OR JFC/vol and sr for hurdles
Yes it's that complicated. In three runnings, only one occasion was there unpenalized 9PFF present and then of two with 9PFF, the lesser won from the #1 TFC yard. On the two occasions when 9PFF was not present, lowering the standard to recognize 4th, 5th and 6th picked the winner on one, whilst focusing on the top 3 JFC jockeys (vol) and picking the one with best sr for hurdles here picked the winner on the other.

Warwick 5:40 Breaking Silence won 9/4 can get the better of Martha's Kinsman and win this race. NR

Haydock 5:00 Worth A King's won 9/4 should overcome age disadvantage whereas Plunkett's 2nd 6/4 weight disadvantage should allow him only a place.

Hereford 4:15 Red Not Blue can take advantage of Taffy Thomas's 2nd 9/2 weight penalty to force him into a place.
Post race analysis: I SHOULD have had this because in retrospect I believe the Profile pointed to it. I don't know why I felt the profile pointed to Red Not Blue which was just the better of two horses on unpenalized 9PFF having a single previous win. The other horse had a previous second. But, as in the profile, the lesser of the two on 9PFF (namely the other horse) came from the #1 stable on TFC volume, Evan Williams, whereas Red Not Blue comes from a stable with no wins at the course. Guess what? The other horse, Five Out Of Five, won at 2/1.

This is why it's important to read the profiles and not just go with my tips as in my tips I do make mistakes in interpreting the profiles!