Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Thursday in March 2010

Ayr 2:10 Victor Chandler "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle Cl4 2m4f

The keys to this race are:-
Unpenalized 9PFF
Jockeyship
The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader pref. strong JFN/sr jockey.

Chepstow 4:35 PP Business Improvement Supports Paul's Place Handicap Hurdle Cl3 3m

Keys:
Weight
Lightly-handicapped
Distance winners
LTO
Course winners
Trainerform
Short list horses in the weight brackets of top-weight and middle-weight (defined as 10-10 to 11-3 with exceptions if lowest weight much above 10-0). In the list seek lightly handicapped horses (no more than 3 handicaps raced) and/or distance winners. Look next at the best previous form among those selected. Particularly note LTO winners. Look next among those left for course winners. If multiple selections remain, favour light handicappers over distance winners. [3m Hvy Feb] Given a straight floating weight shift, 2 made it to here, one was LTO win, one was 2nd LTO and beat the LTO into 2nd today. The winner had stronger trainer.

Ludlow 2:30 Rabi Charity Day On 1 April Novices' Chase Cl4 2m

The keys to this race are:-
Distance
Course trainers
Going
Horses from leading stables for the course with going and distance suitability. What if none have won at the distance? Look for a course leading trainer contender whose best recent performance was at or near the distance.
[2m4f Good Mar] recent running showed best to start with distance winners, isolate leading course trainers (on volume) among them. Favour trainers with multiple entries.

Ayr 2:10 In a field where the only unpenalized 9PFF is a single third place some years ago, it sometimes pays to also consider 4th, 5th and 6th place form in recent runs. Combined with jockey leadership that approach would favour Eighteen Carat 2nd 10/1 whilst going by the book would select unpenalized actual 9PFF leader, likely outsider, Rubispresent, suggested for an each way bet.

Chepstow 4:35 Picture This should have the measure of Tarateeno but frankly Nicholls' horses have let me down quite a bit lately which tempts me to swap those selections. both let me down by faling to make frame

Ludlow 2:30 First Point 2nd 5/6 is selected to go one better than Viper.