Horse Racing Fixture Profiler - Thursday in May 2010

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Wetherby 5.45 Kris Kin Line 4th is not only the selection of the general profile (P0) but also Profile 2 which successfully picked the Wetherby winner last week. Meanwhile the actual Wetherby profile (Profile 4) selection goes (as I often did as a lad - ah, halcyon days) to Kosta Brava WON 5/1 the leader on jumps race experience here. Never fail though to keep an eye out and an each-way bet for our new favourite conditional jockey, yet to finish worse than 4th place- the impressive Tom David who rides Too Tall

Wincanton 5.35 Prescelli WON 11/8 may be the closest I've come to a NAP since every profile bar one (P1), including local advice selected it. P1 goes for Brandy Butter 3rd 6/1

Wincanton 6.35 Fidelis 2nd 3/1 is the choice of the general profile as well as Profile 4. He's also favoured by a key local factor (speed). Profiles 1 and 2 on the other hand go with Barrel of Fun WON 13/8 whilst at least one other key local factor (TrainerForm/Racetype) tells us to be wary of debutant Lean Burn

Newton Abbot No Novices' Hurdles today.

A Study Of Novices' Hurdles Using Profiles - The Numbers

The keys to this race-type are:-
9PFF
Weight (avoid penalized horses unless carrying claimers)
JockeyForm/Now/strike rate (also known as JFN/sr)

This month we are continuing to focus on Novices' Hurdles. There is a general profile (also known as Profile 0 or P0) which has a solid record of identifying winners in this race-type. We can show for instance that in March 2010 it identified the winner in 42% of 19 such races studied and in April 2010 it identified the winner in 44% of 18 Novices' Hurdles. The combined strike rate for both study sets is 43% (16/37) so we have a fairly consistent performance over two months. This month we will monitor the strike rate but also the return on investment which is usually a better indicator as to whether an investment is worthwhile. In other words, are the general profile selections worth betting on?

So far in May this profile has only applied to one Novices' Hurdle and that was the SIS Live Novices' Hurdle run Tuesday at Fakenham (3.20). In that race the general profile selected the winner Sininlaw yielding a 100% strike rate record for May so far (but obviously, based on a single race, it's too early to give this much credence). To give us an idea of ROI (return on investment), we will consider what we could have earned for a 10.00 unit stake (pounds, dollars, shillings - you decide the unit of measure). Sininlaw was 11/1 and so would have returned 110.00 profit to a 10.00 stake. So that means a total month-so-far earnings of 110.00. Another way to look at it is to consider the percentage earnings compared with the total stake amount we expect to spend in the entire month. If we assume that we will cover twenty races during May, the total stake amount needed would be 200.00. In other words we start with a bank of 200.00. After this first bet, the bank would now be at 310.00. That represents a 55% interest rate on the initial bank balance. This is a very impressive figure right now but we should fully expect this measure to go down significantly as the month goes on. So, a nice start to the month for the general profile. It's worth noting however that the April study, which started on April 19th, got off to a similarly great start. Interestingly that same winning selection, Clerk's Choice, runs in today's race.

The general profile suggests looking for the best form horse using 9PFF. If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey (claiming 5lb or more and preferably a JFN/sr leader) to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place. Otherwise go with unpenalized 9PFF leader preferably but not neccessarily carrying a strong JFN/sr jockey.

So why didn't the general profile apply to yesterday's Novices' Hurdle at Huntingdon? Because there were no penalized 9PFF horses with jockeys claiming 5lb or more (Clerk's Choice's jockey was a claimer but of only 3lb and in the past P0 has been quite particular about this not being enough to offset the weight disadvantage most of the time). Likewise, there were no unpenalized 9PFF candidates. To date, the general profile has not offered direction on what to do in that scenario but a number of options presented themselves in yesterday's race. I personally liked two of them: The first was to lower the standard of 9PFF and consider unpenalized horses with 4th, 5th, or 6th places in their last three runs. I have a name for this technique. I call it LS9PFF (Lowered Standards 9PFF). The second idea, in light of the poor form of the unpenalized horses, and the 3lb allowance of the singular claiming horse (and the fact he was riding a 4yo so already some form of weight concession going on) was to waive the normally strict rule of only recognizing 5lb+ claimers. Turns out that both these techniques seemed to apply to some degree although the latter won out. It pointed to Clerk's Choice, the odds-on favourite and clear winner on the day. However, the first technique did not do too badly. It pointed to Himrayn who ran 2nd at a staggering 40/1. In conclusion though, if this particular scenario occurs in the future, I will be going with the 3lb claimer because winning is what counts to the profiles.

Glad that's settled. Now let's get back to today.

There are three main alternatives to the general profile, one of which (called Profile 2 or P2) had an even better record in April than P0 selecting 9/18 Novices' Hurdle winners - an impressive 50% strike rate. Better yet, P2 got off to a flying start in May by also selecting Tuesday's 11/1 winner (and like P0, it also lacked sufficient sophistication to make a selection yesterday- whole other story saved for another day) so all in all it's another good profile to follow. P2 starts by selecting the top three jockeys on JFN/sr and then selects the horse with the best 9PFF among them.

Another alternative to the general profile, which I refer to as Profile 1 (or P1) directs us to look for any last time out winners (LTOs) and if there are more than one, choose the one with the best jockey on JFN/sr. That profile picked 5/13 winners of Novices' Hurdles during the April study (it does not have selections in all races as there are not always LTO winners in the field and indeed its only selection this month, General Ting yesterday, was a non-runner though it can be argued that in the absence of that horse the selection should have defaulted to the only other LTO, Clerk's Choice but I'm not going to argue that- too complicated for now) giving it a 38% general success rate. We'll keep an eye on it.

The third alternative to the general profile will also be added to our consideration: Called Profile 4 (or P4), it has identified race experience (sometimes including flat and even less often, Irish PtP) to be a key in some Novices' Hurdles only really trump-able by race fit previous winning more superior 9PFF horses when present. Weight penalties cause as much of an issue for both selections and spoilers (ie the trump horses) here as elsewhere in Novices' Hurdles. Though generally a strong profile, Profile 4 does not have a very good strike rate over the past month although in the last week or so it has enjoyed a lot of success predicting 2/2 winners at decent odds last Tuesday. If we reset the record starting in May, life doesn't get any better really as P4's only selection so far, Himrayn yesterday failed to win, giving P4 a starting strike rate of 0%, profit/loss earnings (10.00 stake) of -10.00 and a -5% interest rate on the staking bank account compared to the other profiles above.

Nevertheless, we will certainly take note of this profile today because as well as P4, it also goes by another name: The Wetherby profile. I wonder if you can guess why? Yes, it just so happens to also be the local profile for Wetherby Novices' Hurdles having enjoyed much success at that course (although it failed to hit the mark in the last such race at Wetherby where for once, P2 enjoyed more success).

Wincanton too has its own key local factors. In other words there are certain factors that merit special consideration in racing generally but Novices' Hurdles especially at Wincanton. These should definitely be considered, even though Wincanton has a strong record of wins for the general profile, if for no other reason than the fact that in 6/9 of the last Novices' Hurdles we have studied, either the local profile, the local profile spoiler advice or key local factors for the course has=ve correctly identified the winner giving a very good recent strike rate: 66%. Wincanton's key local factors are:

TFR, course winners, speed, BFs.