Weight is so critical in handicaps but most particularly in handicap hurdles. The usual weight category that produces most winners is top-weight or 10-10 to 11-3 range.
Five horses here fall into that weight category. Usually you would look amongst them for the horse with best form. However, here at Hereford on multiple occasions this guidance has been spoiled by a raider carrying bottom weight. Equally common generally is to see a long handicapper stealing these races and upseting form students.
For that reason here I am going to suggest going with the bottom-weight especially if it's a long handicapper. My suggested challenger will be the form horse from the more traditional weight groupings.
I'm in the mood for a challenge today which is why I took on two of the toughest races to call. When it comes to handicap chases in general at Plumpton, course specialization has been shown to be significant no doubt due to the uniquely sharp and undulating conditions of the course.
However, in novices handicap chases particularly, strong trainers are favoured. So probably what we're seeking is a course specialist trainer who is in form and fielding a horse with a win at the course too. Failing that golden combination, any element of it should help but most particularly the in-form trainer.